Should I buy? Mew 151 Ultra Premium Collection | Pokemon TCG investing
- Professor Ash
- Jul 9, 2024
- 5 min read
Hello everyone! This series focuses on finding Pokemon TCG products that are purchasable at a certain price and whether they could be a good longer term investment. I am a Pokemon collector and like to fund my hobby by selling a little on the side. I also like investing generally in both crypto and stocks so this combines some of my hobbies in a fun way for me and hopefully this is interesting for you too. We survived Hurricane Beryl, the worst of the damage was more central Houston and hopefully things will be improving for most people today who don't have power as the flooding resides. If the storm is approaching you please get some essentials, stay inside and stay safe!
Switching to the topic at hand today we are looking at a product from by far the most popular set in the scarlet and violet era so far, the 151 Ultra Premium Collection.
If you are reading this blog you are probably aware this set went ballistic on day 1 and is now hard to find in stores for MSRP on anything. Recently some of the ETBs and Alakazam box have been going up in price even more. However if you are a member at Costco you can pick up the Ultra Premium Collection online for $90. That is both below the MSRP and 25% below the current TCGPlayer price of $120. Maybe we are on to a winner?
Why might the 151 Ultra Premium Collection be good for Pokemon TCG investing?
As I always mention there are 2 main (monetary) reasons you might invest in a Pokemon TCG product.
It's related to a desirable set.
There's something about the product itself that is desirable.
So far we have seen one of each, could this be the mythical product that has both?
How is the product?
It's pretty good. It comes with 3 nice promo cards, the Mew Ex promo was originally available in the Japanese main set but not the English. I think that's important as it's an added reason why people will want this product to make their set feel complete. The Mewtwo promo card is also a nice addition to the collection and the gold metal mew card is ok but a repeat design from other sets.
Other than that it comes with the usual filler, dice, coins, small card portfolio, game mat etc. These are nice but hold no real usage or value for a lot of people. More importantly it comes with 16 packs of 151 which may be where a lot of the future value of this product comes from. The UPC also come in a nice 3 holder box which is good for display and storage purposes. So the UPC is good if not spectacular.
How is the set doing?
Looking at the card prices in the set we see the average price has remained strong and is starting to go up for the first time since its release. It currently has the highest average price of any set in Scarlet and Violet bar the newly released Twilight Masquerade.
Many sets will drop dramatically in price about 2-3 months after releasing when the next sets are released but that hasn't happened here so far. Even more interesting is the median price is now higher than it was at launch, this shows how desirable this set is as a whole with the community.
Looking at other products in the set we also see they are already well above their MSRP on secondary markets, the booster bundle is currently going for $43 with 70% above its MSRP, the ETB is at $69, 16% above it's MSRP and the binder collection is $45, 80% above it's MSRP.
This is showing us the set as a whole is very strong and likely to continue increasing over time. This is not surprising given its focus on the original gen 1 Pokemon which are many collectors favorites and the set given us a large variety of good new illustration rare's so many people will have a card they want from here even if they don't want the whole set. Also as it was not a mainline set release this never got a booster box release only booster bundles reducing the potential supply of cards.
What could the future value be?
To look at potential future values we will first look at the other UPC that have come out over the last few years.
Product | Released | Current price | Yearly % increase |
|---|---|---|---|
Sword and Shield Ultra Premium Collection Charizard | Oct 2022 | $140 | 10% |
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection | Oct 2021 | $350 | 45% |
Note we used a base price of $120 for each product and TCGPlayer for the current price.
We have wildly different price increases for the 2 different products, The Charizard UPC has currently only gained 10% over it's MSRP whilst the Celebrations has 45%. It's worth noting that the Pokemon company perhaps under printed the Celebrations UPC and over printed the Charizard one. This perhaps explains the differential.
Similarly it looks like they over printed the 151 UPC given you can still get it under MSRP whilst every other 151 product is only available over MSRP. Also at over the $100 price point it reduces the number of people willing to make the purchase. Does this make it a bad investment? Perhaps not, even if the product as a whole is not worth it maybe the set is?
If we take out the 151 packs from the set what are the remaining promos and mats etc. worth? Maybe $15 today? That gives us a remaining price on the packs of $75 and when we get 16 packs this gives us a per pack price of about $4.70.
The current TCGplayer price per pack is $7 today. That's a near 40% increase on what we can buy it for. Unless there is a reprint (always possible) I see these being worth over $10 a pack within a year. There aren't many 2x potentials in 1 year and I think this is one. Less people may be willing to pay over $100 for a UPC than are willing to pay $10-$15 for a pack.
Pokemon TCG investment Conclusion: Buy
Price target: $175 Time frame: 1 year
Is it out of stock at the Pokemon center? |  |
Can get it for MSRP or less? | |
Is the product increasing in value? |  |
Is the set increasing in value? | |
Are the comparisons up in value? | |
Overall I rate this product a buy at this price. The price target is based on selling the packs at $10 each and selling everything else for $15. I've bought 6 and may get more.
The main risk is a reprint but that will delay our timelines to reach the target price, I think the price target and approach in separating out the booster packs is valid either way. For a set this new to have so many products increased in price over 50% is a rarity and i think we should take the opportunity to buy up any below MSRP.
If you would like some yourself here is the link to the listing and if you find it cheaper anywhere else, buy it!
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